Demand, capacity utilization and costs
Achievable modal shares
Achievable modal shares of public transport including the pillar-track people mover had been assessed accordingly to mobility investigations and a modal choice model. Following pessimistic assumptions, there has been forecasted a demand for public transport of 17-22%, with optimistic assumptions 32-52% of the current transport performance (in passenger-km). Pessimistic and optimistic assumptions concern mainly capacity and regulatory restrictions in car traffic as well as indirect effects of the comprehensive public transport offer during the whole day and for various purposes of travel. About 13% percent (of the whole transport performance) represent people without a possibility to drive a car themselves (including activities which currently due to poor public transport cannot be realised at all or only with other people, who accompagny them by car).
Expected capacity utilization
Accordingly to the forecasted modal shares, the population density and various initial data concerning mobility and spacial and temporal distribution of traffic, shortened intervals are necessary in all regions at least in certain times and line sections, in some extreme cases down to an interval of 3 minutes. The average utilization of the seating capacity (seat load factor) is under pessimistic assumptions 22 to 41%, under optimistic assumptions 37% to 62%. The calculated specific energy consumption is corresponds to 0,4 to 2,5 l gasoline per 100 passenger-kilometres.
Overall costs of the pillar-track regional people mover in the exemplary regions
Depending on the region's size and the demand assumptions, costs between 15 and 35 Mio. Euro per year and region had been calculated including amortization of infrastructure and vehicles and current operational costs. About the half of the costs concerns the vehicles (with a higher share of maintenance, than amortization), a third the infrastructure and the rest energy and personel.
Costs per performance in vehicle-kilometres
The overall costs of the pillar-track people mover (regardless to ticket revenues) represent 1,6 to 1,9 Euro per vehicle-kilometre. This is slightly less, than the costs of slower and less attractive rural buses and about 15 to 20% of the costs of regional railways.
Costs per performance in passenger-kilometres
Costs per passenger-kilometre are in the two regions with more favourable conditions 6 to 9 cent, in the other two regions 12 to 14 cent. Average costs of all public transport in Austria are ca. 17 cent per passenger-kilometre, about 30-40% of them covered by ticket revenues. The overall private expenses for cars, fuel, repairs and accessories correspond even to 23 cent per passenger-kilometre.
Costes and required subsidies per population
Because of the significant increased service extent, the costs per inhabitant of the exemplary regions would be considerably higher, than the costs of current rural public transport, but they would not exceed the costs of current urban public transport. As far as the pillar-track regional people mover would almost equalize the quality differences between urban and rural public transport, financing the pillar-track people mover seems to be justifiable. This would be possible without significant increase of public expenses for transport, if there would be reduced expenses for enlargement and maintenance of the road network and raised or newly introduced various fees for road traffic. Also certain real estate based financing tools would be conceivable.